FWIW, the crash was in SetupFrontEnd.exe with is the setup wizard. That means they've already gotten past the architecture agnostic stuff, whether because they're using the arch-specific installer, or the "anycpu" installer downloaded the right one and launched it.
The chain of setup for the "Any CPU" installer goes like this:
paint.net.X.Y.Z.install.anycpu.exe extracts itself (x64, technically architecture agnostic since ARM can emulate it)
SetupShim.exe is launched (x64, technically architecture agnostic since ARM can emulate it)
SetupDownloader.exe is launched (.NET Framework "Any CPU") which then downloads the correct architecture-specific installer
paint.net.X.Y.Z.install.[x64 or arm64].exe is launched and extracts itself
SetupShim.exe is launched (the new one that was just downloaded)
SetupFrontEnd.exe is launched and does the actual installation, this time with everything needed to install for the system's CPU (x64 or arm64)
So a crash being in one of these can sometimes give you a rough idea of how far things got.