just registered to say that i am getting the same exact issue on windows 7 64 bit. i ran the installer diagnostics tool several times and it told me it found no errors, though i havent tried deleting the paintnet folder i already had (the program previously updated and installed with no issues even if there already was another paintnet folder though)
i tried updating paint.net from version 4.2.10
the update installer from paint.net itself did not work, the installer downloaded from the official site did not work (including when using the more customized install option), the installer from github did not work. its completely unable to install from what i can tell. all it ends up installing is the Staging folder with a separate installer tool (?) in it, for some reason, and it creates new copies of that tool in this folder with each attempt to install
will this get fixed with the next paint.net update?